Once you trigger to ACT on an assumption, use the mnemonic to verify your assumption. Remembering that ACT stands for “Assumption, Contingency and Test,” here are the three steps:
1. Assumption: When you trigger yourself with ACT, follow the assumption with a statement like “that’s an assumption, so I ACT on it!” This helps confirm in your mind that it is an assumption and so it’s open to question.
2. Contingency: What is the impact if the assumption proves wrong? What could you do to either reduce or deal with the impact? To work these out, try to think of the top two or three “worst case” scenarios. If they are significant, like running out of fuel, spend more time here. You should also pay more attention to the “Test” step next. If the worst case is that you are going to be ten minutes late, you may not need to worry too much about contingencies and testing.
3. Test: What are one or two tests you could do now, or at some point in the future, that could prove your assumption was correct? You can use these tests as decision points where you may choose to use a contingency plan.
In private aviation, poor weather judgment in pilots is a problem. Often pilots go flying even when there is an approaching cold front. Cold fronts often bring heavy rain and thunderstorms—poor flying weather. Let’s use the trigger statement “that cold front won’t be here until later this afternoon” as an example.
1. Assumption: See yourself in a flight planning room on a bright sunny morning, planning for a flight to another airfield. You’re taking some friends, and you plan to return later that afternoon. There is a cold front due at your destination airfield two hours after you leave, according to the forecast. Visualize yourself in the “low” state saying, “That front won’t be there until after we leave.” Then straighten up, smile, take a deep breath in and say (or think) “That’s an assumption, so I’ll ACT on it!” Repeat this step a few times before doing the contingency and test steps.
2. Contingencies. Continue the visualization, and think of two worst case scenarios. One might be you are halfway there and you realize your destination airfield is already under the front. See yourself in flight looking at a huge bank of black cloud ahead. Another might be that you can’t leave the destination airfield because the front arrives early.
What are your contingencies? Your first one may be to locate some alternative airfields on the way to your destination, in case you have to divert. The second may be to tell your friends of the risk of having to stop at the other end for a night, and check what impact that has on them.
3. Test. Now that you have worked out some contingencies, decide two tests that you can do either now or later. One may be to call the weather office before departure and ask if there has been any change to the estimated arrival time of the front. The second may be to look up an airfield thirty miles past your destination airfield, towards the approaching front, and take their telephone number with you. On arrival at your destination airfield, you could give that airfield a call and confirm the front hasn’t arrived there yet.
While this example is aviation specific, you can apply the same principles in many other areas as well.