Example—weather in Aviation#

In private aviation, poor weather judgment in pilots is a problem. Often pilots go flying even when there is an approaching cold front. Cold fronts often bring heavy rain and thunderstorms—poor flying weather. Let’s use the trigger statement “that cold front won’t be here until later this afternoon” as an example.

1. Assumption: See yourself in a flight planning room on a bright sunny morning, planning for a flight to another airfield. You’re taking some friends, and you plan to return later that afternoon. There is a cold front due at your destination airfield two hours after you leave, according to the forecast. Visualize yourself in the “low” state saying, “That front won’t be there until after we leave.” Then straighten up, smile, take a deep breath in and say (or think) “That’s an assumption, so I’ll ACT on it!” Repeat this step a few times before doing the contingency and test steps.
2. Contingencies. Continue the visualization, and think of two worst case scenarios. One might be you are halfway there and you realize your destination airfield is already under the front. See yourself in flight looking at a huge bank of black cloud ahead. Another might be that you can’t leave the destination airfield because the front arrives early.

What are your contingencies? Your first one may be to locate some alternative airfields on the way to your destination, in case you have to divert. The second may be to tell your friends of the risk of having to stop at the other end for a night, and check what impact that has on them.

Test. Now that you have worked out some contingencies, decide two tests that you can do either now or later. One may be to call the weather office before departure and ask if there has been any change to the estimated arrival time of the front. The second may be to look up an airfield thirty miles past your destination airfield, towards the approaching front, and take their telephone number with you. On arrival at your destination airfield, you could give that airfield a call and confirm the front hasn’t arrived there yet.

While this example is aviation specific, you can apply the same principles in many other areas as well.

Example triggers#

Here are some example triggers from aviation. I’ve included these particular ones as you could apply many to other fields. For example, weather, fuel and location are just as important for sailing, boating and perhaps four-wheel driving. “I’m OK” is important for fields where your personal performance is critical. Let’s look at the examples.

Weather#

Use the following triggers to ensure you are aware of the assumptions you make about the weather:

That front won’t be here until later this afternoon.
Those thunderstorms are still far away.
The weather will be clear or clearer when we arrive.
I have enough time before last light.

Fuel#

A pilot once took off from a country airstrip and almost immediately crashed because of lack of fuel. He had fuelled the aircraft within the previous twelve hours, and didn’t bother checking again. Between fuelling and takeoff, someone stole the fuel from the aircraft. In an aircraft and other equipment, fuel helps keep you alive, so make all fuel assumptions conscious.

Someone else refueled the aircraft. It’s full.
It was full when I checked a few hours ago.
I should have enough fuel to make it home.
The gauge must be faulty.

Location#

Misidentifying landmarks is a fast way to become lost. If you are in any doubt be sure to ACT.

That must be the right town.
I must be “here” (pointing to a map).
I’ve departed in the correct direction.
My compass must not be working properly.

I’m OK#

A pilot’s internal systems are part of the whole system that makes an aircraft fly. The system can’t work correctly if the pilot’s internal systems don’t work correctly. The same applies to other equipment. This may also be relevant in other fields where good personal performance is important. Use these triggers to make sure “you’re OK.”

I’ll be more awake once I get going.
I’ll be OK, or I’ll be all right, or I’ll be fine (with that nagging feeling that maybe you won’t be).
I got enough sleep last night.
It’s been eight hours since my last alcoholic drink. It’s out of my system by now.

Other people’s actions#

People can be as unpredictable as the weather. You can often rely on your own actions, however others may have a different understanding of what you expect from them.

(Someone) closed that door or hatch properly.
(Someone) knows what I’m doing.
(Someone) is going to be there when I expect them.